If someone carrying a concealed handgun has to use it defensively (i.e., shoot someone) and they are charged with a related crime, it is a wise idea to lawyer-up. But should that someone purchase LTC insurance beforehand, or just pay out-of-pocket if the time comes?
Note: this analysis is extremely rough, but I think the differences in numbers are stark enough that it still holds. This also does not take into account external factors such as crime in the area (DGU is much more likely in bad neighborhoods than good ones). Take the following with a grain of salt.
Insurance costs for a few companies are as follows:
Let's take into account 2021's god-awful inflation and call the average insurance cost $200/year.
Insurance overviews can be found here:
It's difficult to estimate the cost of lawyer fees for situations like these. Every shooting situation varies wildly, from obvious (lower lawyer fees) to dubious (higher lawyer fees).
So I turn to the most trusted source I know for information on this: the internet.
What do good self-defense attorneys cost? Below, you'll find a great in-depth video by Don West and Mike Darter, Co-Founder and CEO of CCW Safe, explaining attorney costs. The first two legal expenses (bail and attorney fees) will run you around $75,000.
With most plans, you'll quickly be out of pocket $100,000. This initial outlay of cash may affect the kind of attorney you can afford. USCCA's attorney, in a recent video, stated that he wouldn't take a murder case for anything less than $100,000.
Bail is another area some companies downplay, as bail can run anywhere from $2,500 to $25,000, on average. In a recent incident involving a CCW Safe member, bail was set at $500,000, with a coverage fee of $50,000. Luckily, our member had $1 million bond protection. CCW Safe negotiated the fee to a 6% face amount ($30,000), which was fully covered by our company. In that particular case, over $50,000 was spent on the investigator alone. With the highest available coverage (other than ours), that would have left only $45,000 for attorney fees. Other areas not typically covered - or even mentioned - by most of our competitors' plans include coverage for experts, depositions, trial exhibits and jury consultants.
Let's use a range of $20,000-$100,000, since the law firms and insurance sellers are probably trying to scare us a bit and it helps to see both types of scenarios.
People don't carry guns because they expect to use them, they carry them in case they need to use them.
As of 2021, there are around 21.5 million LTCs in the U.S. From English's 2021 National Firearms Survey abstract:
Consistent with other recent survey research, the survey finds an overall rate of adult firearm ownership of 31.9%, suggesting that in excess of 81.4 million Americans aged 18 and over own firearms. The survey further finds that approximately a third of gun owners (31.1%) have used a firearm to defend themselves or their property, often on more than one occasion, and it estimates that guns are used defensively by firearms owners in approximately 1.67 million incidents per year. Handguns are the most common firearm employed for self-defense (used in 65.9% of defensive incidents), and in most defensive incidents (81.9%) no shot was fired. Approximately a quarter (25.2%) of defensive incidents occurred within the gun owner's home, and approximately half (53.9%) occurred outside their home, but on their property. About one out of ten (9.1%) defensive gun uses occurred in public, and about one out of twenty (4.8%) occurred at work.
How many DGUs is this? The math comes out to:
\[81.4 \times 0.311 \times 0.181 = 4.5 \, \text{million}\]And thus 4.5/81.4 = 5.52%, or 1 in every 20, of gun owners have defensively discharged their weapon at some point in their life. I find this incredibly hard to believe, but let's roll with it.
Summarizing all of the costs comes out to:
You'd have to go $20,000/$200/year = 100 years without a DGU incident for the insurance not to be worth it. Anytime before then it is worth it. 6% chance at $20,000 per chance is nothing to scoff at. The expected value of legal fees comes out to $1,200 at a minimum, which is still significantly more than the $200/year for insurance.
I think the answer is pretty clear. If you're carrying, get insurance.